On February 25, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) will take its final vote on its Transit-Oriented Communities (TOC) Policy. This vote will determine whether the region follows through on linking billions in transportation funding to real progress on affordable housing, tenant protections, and transit-oriented development.
Last month, at its January 28 meeting, MTC advanced major decisions on the One Bay Area Grant (OBAG) program, which distributes billions in regional transportation funding. Commissioners affirmed that OBAG can be used to incentivize jurisdictions to align with regional housing and climate goals. But they also left the door open to weakening the link between funding and TOC compliance.
The February 25 vote will determine whether OBAG remains a meaningful incentive for implementation or becomes disconnected from the housing and land use policies needed to make transit investments succeed. Transform and our allies are organizing to urge MTC not to weaken its TOC policy. You can help by emailing your MTC commissioners.
The TOC policy is how Plan Bay Area gets implemented
The TOC policy is the implementation tool for Plan Bay Area 2050. It aligns transportation funding with local policies that support affordable housing, prevent displacement, and reduce car dependence.
Because MTC cannot require cities to adopt land use policies directly, tying OBAG funding to TOC compliance is an essential lever to encourage compliance. This incentive structure ensures regional funding supports jurisdictions that are taking concrete steps to implement the region’s adopted goals.
Cities across the Bay Area have already begun adopting tenant protections, affordable housing policies, and parking reforms in response to the TOC polixy. Weakening the policy now would undermine that progress.
Weakening TOC would undermine the region’s housing and climate goals
Some commissioners and jurisdictions are pushing to allow cities to qualify for funding without implementing meaningful housing policies. This would defeat the purpose of the TOC policy, which was designed to reward implementation, not simply planning or minimum compliance.
Allowing jurisdictions to qualify without taking action would weaken one of the region’s most important tools for reducing displacement, increasing housing affordability, and supporting transit ridership.
Regional transportation funding should support communities that are taking action to advance regional goals.
On February 25, MTC must uphold a strong TOC policy and follow through on its commitment to link transportation funding with housing and climate outcomes.
Want to take your advocacy to the next level?
Show up to make a comment on Wednesday, February 25 (9:35 AM – 1 PM)
You can show up in person at 375 Beale Street, San Francisco, CA 94105 at 9:35 or on Zoom (link to be released on Friday, February 20).
If you plan to be on Zoom, you can sign up for our Timely Text Alerts to know when the item is up.
We will share sample talking points when the agenda is released.
https://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Cropped-bus-Muni-scaled-e1720486262582.jpg14791920Julia Gerasimenkohttps://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Company-Logo.pngJulia Gerasimenko2026-02-18 14:11:552026-02-18 14:22:56Transform Urges MTC to Link Funding to Housing and Transit
On Wednesday, January 28, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission will take up critical decisions about how regional transportation funding is allocated through the One Bay Area Grant (OBAG) Program.
The January 28 MTC meeting will focus on tying OBAG funding to Transit-Oriented Communities (TOC) implementation. A follow-up meeting on February 25 is expected to focus on the TOC Policy itself.
These votes are deeply connected and critically important to the future of sustainable development in the Bay Area.
OBAG is one of the region’s strongest tools for shaping land use, housing, and transportation outcomes. How MTC structures OBAG funding now will either reinforce or undermine the TOC Policy before commissioners even vote on the final details next month.
We urge the Commission to use the January 28 meeting to send a clear signal that:
Regional funding must advance regional goals.
TOC compliance is essential to meeting climate, housing, and equity commitments.
Scarce public dollars should prioritize jurisdictions taking meaningful action toward meeting regional goals.
OBAG funding is one of the few levers MTC has to ensure that local decisions align with regional goals. Decisions the commission makes now will determine whether the TOC policy functions as a meaningful incentive or simply becomes another well-intentioned plan without teeth.
Transform is advocating for a strong policy that uses OBAG funding as an incentive for communities to develop infill housing near transit, reducing car dependency and increasing livability and affordability.
Take action now to send a message to commissioners before their January 28 meeting
The TOC Policy was originally designed to move the Bay Area beyond baseline requirements by encouraging stronger tenant protections, more affordable housing near transit, better station access, and smarter parking policies. While early conversations with MTC suggested strong alignment around linking funding to TOC metrics, there is now a risk that the bar for cities to comply with TOC will be considerably lowered.
Allocating OBAG funding to cities for meeting watered-down minimum requirements will undermine the work of other Bay Area cities that take transit-oriented development much more seriously. Furthermore, the precedent would erode further efforts to hold cities accountable to our climate, transportation, and housing goals.
Email your MTC commissioner today and tell them to fund housing near transit, not more sprawl.
Transform will continue to push for a stronger TOC policy
If MTC is serious about meeting its housing, climate, and transportation goals, it must take a leadership role to ensure that regional funding supports the communities that are stepping up to advance infill housing near transit, reducing car dependency and increasing livability and affordability, not cities that continue to drag their feet and maintain the status quo.
Between now and then, the message is clear: regional dollars should be conditioned on cities implementing policies and programs that support housing and business development that is near transportation, putting public transit in reach for more people and improving the quality of life in the Bay Area.
Transform will be turning out with other advocates and community members in January and February to push for a policy that delivers meaningful outcomes.
https://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/housing-near-transit-1.png512711Julia Gerasimenkohttps://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Company-Logo.pngJulia Gerasimenko2026-01-21 16:41:132026-01-26 15:48:38Tell MTC to Link Funding to Real Housing Outcomes
The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) met yesterday to create a five-county transportation district encompassing San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, and Santa Clara Counties. These Bay Area counties opted to be part of a regional measure to provide stable funding for public transit under SB 63, passed by the legislature last year. MTC’s action is a necessary precursor to putting the measure before voters.
What will the regional funding measure do?
The measure establishes a half-cent sales tax in the five counties, with money going to fund transit operations and rider-first improvements. Transit operators have struggled to maintain bus and train schedules to serve the people who rely on them to get around, as the pandemic, changing commute patterns, and federal funding cuts have strained resources. The guaranteed revenue from this measure will support the frequent, reliable transit that’s the backbone of the Bay Area’s transportation infrastructure.
Why do we need a new transportation district?
The funds collected will be allocated to transit operations within the five participating counties. The funding district creates a mechanism for collecting and distributing funds, particularly to multi-county operators such as BART.
What’s next for regional transit funding?
The newly established district could have opted to put the initiative on the ballot but voted not to do so in order to clear the way for a citizen’s initiative. To have the best chance of passing in November, Transform and our allies will collect signatures to put the measure on the ballot as a citizen initiative. Citizen initiatives only need 50% + 1 to succeed; funding measures placed on the ballot by elected bodies must get two-thirds of the vote to pass due to Prop 13.
Look for an announcement in the coming weeks about signature collection and what you can do to help get this critical measure on the ballot. Let’s make 2026 the year we save public transit!
https://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/MTC-SB-63-hearing-scaled.jpg14461920Abibat Rahman-Davieshttps://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Company-Logo.pngAbibat Rahman-Davies2026-01-08 13:35:342026-01-08 14:48:49MTC Clears the Way for Transit Funding Initiative
This post was originally published on July 30, 2025, and updated on August 13, 2025 to include the addition of Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties to the regional measure.
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has found that the Bay Area needs to double transit ridership in order to meet our region’s climate goals. Yet we could move in the opposite direction if we don’t develop a stable, ongoing source of funding. Some operators could be forced to drastically curtail service, gridlocking our transportation systems.
So, it’s good news that the Bay Area Transit Funding Bill, SB 63, has cleared all the policy committees in the legislature. The legislation gives Bay Area counties the authority to put a transit funding measure on the November 2026 ballot. Voters must approve the revenue mechanism and expenditure plan before it can take effect.
The Bay Area Transit Funding Bill has three more hurdles to clear: the Assembly Appropriations Committee, a vote of the full Assembly, and getting the governor’s signature. As the measure continues to make its way through the legislative process, Transform, and our allies are advocating for a better funding source and improvements that support riders throughout the region, and we see some positive signs. Based on the newly released expenditure plan, here’s where SB 63 and the Bay Area’s transit future stand with the legislature on recess.
Positive developments for region-wide transit
Moving legislation through can be a messy process, with changing provisions and shifting support. We’re seeing these positive developments in SB 63:
As formulated, it would generate around $1 billion annually for transit, enough to avert massive service cuts while not entirely filling the funding gap.
It includes about $46 million annually for transit transformation. This could provide discounted transfers and fares, making transit more affordable and encouraging more people to ride. And it would fund wayfinding and accessibility improvements that advocates have asked for, creating a more integrated transit system throughout the Bay Area.
Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties opted into the measure, despite not being initially included in the legislation. A five-county measure is a major win for regional connectivity and collaboration, particularly for rail operators BART and Caltrain, which serve both of these counties.
No money for highways
Earlier versions of the regional measure allowed as much as 30% of the measure to be available for highway spending, enough to outweigh any climate benefits generated by additional public transit investments. However, in a big win for Transform and the climate, not only will the measure be climate-positive, but all of the money will be spent on public transit, which will get people out of their cars and onto the bus or train, reducing congestion and greenhouse gas emissions.
What we’re still fighting for
Stable transit funding requires a new tax. From the beginning, Transform has advocated for a progressive revenue mechanism that would generate more funding and require wealthy businesses to pay their fair share. However, SB 63 calls for a sales tax, which will fall most heavily on those least able to afford it.
The possibility of a citizen initiative
SB 63 contains language to allow a regional funding measure to be placed on the ballot via citizen initiative. A citizen-led initiative has a significant upside: it only needs 50% plus one vote to pass. A measure placed on the ballot by MTC or another elected body requires over two-thirds of voter support.
Getting a citizen initiative on the ballot isn’t easy. Bay Area Forward — a collaboration of transit unions and Voices for Public Transportation Coalition — and our allies would need to collect tens of thousands of signatures, which is an expensive and time-consuming process. However, if we succeeded, this could provide a template for future funding measures, such as a proposed affordable housing measure.
Bay Area transit must keep moving forward
Bay Area legislators, MTC, and advocates like Transform have been working for several years to save local transit from the fiscal cliff. We’ve secured stopgap funding and an emergency loan from the state while investing significantly in safety, cleanliness, and innovative fare programs like the Clipper BayPass, which has grown ridership by 30%.
These wins will be lost if we don’t pass a regional measure in 2026. Even if SB 63 doesn’t contain everything Transform could hope for by the time it reaches the governor’s office, we’ll still work hard to see that it passes in 2026. The future of the transit systems that the Bay Area relies on, as well as our economic vitality, access to opportunity, and climate goals, depend on it.
https://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/greenTRIP_0002_Cropped-bus-Muni-2048x1578-1.jpg353530Zack Deutsch-Grosshttps://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Company-Logo.pngZack Deutsch-Gross2025-08-13 15:02:352025-08-13 15:03:20One Step Closer to Stable Funding for Bay Area Transit
Last week, the California Transportation Commission (CTC) held a hearing to decide whether to grant funding to a number of projects that Transform opposes, most notably a project to widen State Route 37. As expected, the commission approved $73 million for the SR 37 project, which won’t solve congestion and will be underwater due to sea level rise within a short time.
While we would have preferred a different outcome, this hearing wasn’t a total loss. We brought awareness to the fiscal irresponsibility of spending money on an expensive project with such a short life span. The press covered the issue, focusing on Transform’s perspective that funding the project is the equivalent of throwing taxpayer dollars into the ocean. Not surprisingly, the more people know about the SR 37 project, the more they oppose it.
We also shook up the CTC. The commission usually serves as a rubber stamp for Caltrans projects, granting most funding requests with little pushback or public scrutiny. Nearly 200 Transform supporters emailed the commissioners to object to funding SR 37, and a number of people came to the meeting to testify against it.
We were pleased to see some commissioners asking tough questions. Although it ultimately approved the funding, the CTC is on notice that it will be held to account for its actions by a newly engaged public.
Next steps to stop the Highway 37 project
We haven’t given up on our campaign to stop the SR 37 widening project. The CTC’s $73 million in grants only partially fund the construction, which is estimated to cost $500 million. Transform will oppose the allocation of other funding. We also continue to work to defeat AB 697, which smooths the way for construction by lifting limits on how many endangered species Caltrans can kill in the wetlands surrounding the current roadway.
Congestion on State Route 37 and many highways around California is a real problem. But, while it looks like a highway and transportation problem, congestion is actually a development, housing, and transit problem. The issues with SR 37 are caused by a lack of affordable housing near jobs in Marin and inadequate public transit between Solano, Napa, and Marin. We’re working toward a world with more affordable, infill housing, more transit, and fewer highway lanes.
https://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/CTC_37_3_1.jpg900900Zack Deutsch-Grosshttps://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Company-Logo.pngZack Deutsch-Gross2025-07-01 15:09:552025-07-01 15:09:57Gains and Losses in the Campaign to Stop Highway Expansion
Women have always played crucial roles in moving the United States forward, but their names have often been obscured by history, their key contributions not lifted up. There are too many women — just in the Bay Area — who stood up for equitable housing and transit to name them all here. We include four sheroes below. See Transform’s social feeds for even more.
Minnie Straub Baxter
Herminia “Minnie” Straub Baxter (1895–1991) was a 64-year-old grandmother who sparked the San Francisco Freeway Revolt. In 1958, when plans emerged to run a freeway through her Glen Park neighborhood — threatening homes and the beloved Glen Canyon Park — Baxter printed cards reading “Come learn how Glen Park will be destroyed” and rallied 500 neighbors to a meeting. Minnie’s leadership, along with two other women dubbed the “Gum Tree Girls,” galvanized public opposition citywide. Their grassroots activism ultimately halted the proposed freeways, protecting many San Francisco communities. Her fight preserved green space and homes in working-class areas, showing that even a “housewife” from a marginalized outer neighborhood could influence urban policy. Her courage empowered other citizen activists, many of them women, to speak up for environmental justice and community rights in the city planning process.
Ruth Williams
Ruth Williams (1935–1995) was a multi-talented activist: a producer, playwright, educator, and a leader in the civil rights era. As part of the “Big Five of Bayview,” she co-founded one of the city’s first subsidized housing cooperatives, helping create over 2,000 affordable housing units with on-site childcare. Williams also chaired the San Francisco Human Rights Commission’s Employment Committee, fighting job discrimination. She saved the historic Bayview Opera House from demolition after riots in 1966, later establishing the Bayview Repertory Theater to uplift Black art and youth. Impact: Ruth’s holistic activism — housing, jobs, health (she led heart disease awareness after losing her husband) — transformed Bayview-Hunters Point. She empowered Black residents to build economic self-sufficiency and preserved community identity through arts and education. The Bayview Opera House now bears her name, a testament to her enduring impact on a marginalized community’s resilience and pride.
Judith Huemann
Judy Heumann (1947–2023) was a pioneering disability rights activist whose Bay Area advocacy revolutionized public transit accessibility. After a bout with polio as an infant, Huemann used a wheelchair for mobility. She and her parents had to fight for access to education and other opportunities, which were largely closed to people in wheelchairs at the time. As an adult, she became a fierce advocate for disability rights, moving to the Bay Area in 1975 to become deputy director of the Center for Independent Living. In April 1977, Heumann was one of the leaders of the historic Section 504 sit-in at San Francisco’s Federal Building — a 28-day occupation by people with disabilities that resulted in concessions from the state and better educational access for children with disabilities. You can learn more about Huemann’s groundbreaking activism in the movie Crip Camp.
Jean Quan
Jean Quan (born 1949) made history as Oakland’s first woman and first Asian-American mayor (2011–2015). But her advocacy for equitable housing and transit began long before. In the 1970s, Quan was a young activist at UC Berkeley pushing for ethnic studies and community control of development. As a city councilmember, she helped secure funding for the Fruitvale Transit Village, a nationally acclaimed mixed-use affordable housing project at a BART station that improved transit and housing access in a predominantly Latino community. As mayor, Quan launched her version of the 10K Housing Plan championed by her predecessors: a plan to bring 10,000 new residents with 7,500 new units (many affordable) in Oakland. Though ultimately derailed by the financial crisis of 2008, the plan resulted in 6,000 new units. Quan also championed the free “B” Broadway Shuttle connecting downtown to Jack London Square. She also opened Oakland’s City Hall to non-English speaking communities, empowering historically marginalized Asian and immigrant residents to engage in civic planning and demand better transit and housing services.
There are many, many more women who championed affordable housing and transit, including many alive today and still doing fantastic work. We honor all of them in March — and every month.
https://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Judy-Heumann.jpg683890Nicolay Kreidlerhttps://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Company-Logo.pngNicolay Kreidler2025-03-12 14:06:272025-03-12 14:37:38Honoring Sheroes of Bay Area Housing and Transit
The second Trump administration is here, already emboldening hate, stripping protections from vulnerable communities, and unraveling decades of progress on climate and equity. These senseless and destructive actions are designed to divide and disorient us and to erode the very systems that allow people to build power together and speak up for change.
Trump and his enablers are dismantling climate policies, attacking sustainable transportation, and erasing equity as a guiding principle. They are gutting EV funding, defunding equity-centered infrastructure, and stripping vital clean transportation investments from the communities that need them most. They’re investigating California High-Speed Rail and illegally interfering with NYC congestion pricing. His DOT plans to eliminate all funding for climate action, racial and gender equity, and environmental justice.
Public transit, safe streets, and walkable communities bring people together — but under Trump, these spaces are under attack. His administration’s deportation crackdowns and assaults on trans rights are making public spaces unsafe — turning even schools, workplaces, and public restrooms into sites of fear.
But here’s what they don’t understand: We are not easily divided. We are not easily deterred. And we are certainly not giving up. Here in the Bay Area and in California, our movement is fighting for communities that are just, sustainable, and connected. For three decades, Transform has been at the forefront of that fight, and now, we’re doubling down.
Transform’s work: A beacon in the storm
Transform has always built power from the ground up — because real democracy starts in our communities. Democracy is built through engaging, educating, and empowering people by listening to and lifting up the voices of communities that have borne the brunt of racist planning and underinvestment over the course of decades. And now is the time to double down on that work.
Here’s how we’re fighting back:
Protecting essential infrastructure investments: We’re fighting Trump’s attempts to claw back critical IIJA/IRA investments in sustainable, equitable mobility.
Pushing California to keep leading the way: We are making sure that California continues to lead the nation in investing in transit, biking, and walking instead of freeway expansion — holding Caltrans and our elected officials accountable.
Defending investments in transit-oriented, affordable housing: We are partnering with environmental justice organizations to ensure that California’s Cap-and-Trade Program truly benefits the communities most impacted by climate change.
Empowering communities: We are listening, learning, and partnering with people on the ground — because those most affected by these policies should be the ones shaping solutions. We’re partnering with city staff and elected officials to develop mobility plans that foster inclusivity and safety.
Promoting truly safe transit for everyone: We promote safety solutions that do not rely on policing but instead prioritize community-based strategies. Our 2023 safety report lays out a vision for making transit and public spaces safe for everyone.
Walking in solidarity with vulnerable immigrant families by helping their kids get to school safely in walking school buses.
This is the moment to act
Now is not the time to retreat. Now is the time to organize, to push harder, to demand the just and sustainable communities we all deserve.
We need you in this fight. Here’s how you can take action:
Tell Governor Newsom to take bold action by stopping highway expansion and investing in California’s clean transportation future.
Support our work: Your financial support of Transform helps us fight for safe, equitable, and sustainable mobility solutions. Chip in now.
Educate yourself and others: Learn how to support vulnerable communities in public spaces.
Transform has always been about building the world we want to see — one rooted in connection, community, and democracy. That work has never been more urgent. But we are not in this struggle alone: our supporters, community partners, fellow advocates — YOU — are vital to our success. We won’t be divided. Together, we can stand against hate, against fear, and against the destruction of our planet and our communities.
https://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/levi-meir-clancy-UxLBqh-WdaU-unsplash-scaled-e1740606231768.jpg5981920Transform Staffhttps://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Company-Logo.pngTransform Staff2025-02-26 13:44:522025-03-28 12:17:03We Won’t Be Divided: Transform Keeps Fighting for Sustainability and Justice
The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA), which runs the city’s essential Muni transit service, faces a budget deficit of up to $322 million by 2026, threatening the integrity of the system. As part of our commitment to preserving and improving public transit, Transform joined the Muni Now, Muni Forever campaign as part of the Transit Justice Coalition — a group of transit riders, disability advocates, climate advocates, members of labor unions, and community groups — to meet with members of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors on January 16. We were part of a lobby day to speak with the city’s elected leaders about the need to find money to fully fund Muni.
Funding shortfalls caused by external factors, not ridership loss
The funding shortfall is a result of several factors, including a decline in the amount of parking revenue Muni receives from the city’s general fund, inflation, and a reduction in federal aid. Only a small portion of SFMTA’s deficit is due to pandemic ridership loss, as Muni only gets a small portion of its revenue from fares. Additionally, Muni ridership has continued to recover, reaching 78% of pre-pandemic levels. Weekend ridership has reached 92% of pre-pandemic levels, and some lines have even surpassed their pre-pandemic ridership.
Muni and other public transit providers serving the city are critical not only to San Francisco but all of the Bay Area. In September, there were an average of 521,000 weekday trips on Muni every day. In fact, Muni carries the most riders of all the Bay Area transit agencies, and many regular riders are not San Francisco residents.
SFMTA’s $322 million budget deficit is already leading to service cuts and reductions. On February 1, Muni reduced service on the 1X California Express, 38 Geary, 24 Divisadero, and 43 Masonic buses and on the K Ingleside and M Ocean View light-rail Metro service.
These cuts could be followed by a further 3% service cut this summer, and if additional funding still isn’t found, service cuts could balloon up to 30%. The SFMTA Board of Directors is pushing back on proposed Muni service cuts, asking the agency to dip into its reserves and look elsewhere for cost savings to balance its budget. The Transit Justice Coalition will continue to mobilize to gain more funding and prevent these service cuts.
Bearing witness to the crucial role of transit in San Francisco
In meetings with members of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, advocates impressed upon them that public transit should be a top priority in San Francisco. We asked that they explore funding options that would equitably balance the budget deficit without resorting to service cuts.
Constituents spoke with their district supervisors to share how important transit was in their everyday lives. San Franciscans rely on Muni to get to doctor appointments, enjoy and patronize businesses in San Francisco, and much more. Advocates related how cuts to transit would devastate their quality of life and the economic prosperity of San Francisco.
Many of the supervisors were supportive of our cause but seemed to be missing the sense of urgency around the issue and the importance of their role in shoring up SFMTA’s finances. The agency can only do so much to plug its deficit. As stewards of the city budget, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors has a lot of power in putting forth a balanced budget that prioritizes transit. Transform is standing with advocates demanding the city do more to solve this critical issue now.
https://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Abibat-Rahman-Davies-SF-Muni-lobby-day-2025-1.jpg8351900Abibat Rahman-Davieshttps://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Company-Logo.pngAbibat Rahman-Davies2025-02-06 17:06:462025-02-06 17:06:47Transform Joins Fight to Save SF Muni
The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) recently released its final blueprint of Plan Bay Area 2050+, the region’s latest long-range plan to address transportation, housing, the economy, and the environment over the next 30 years. According to MTC, Plan Bay Area 2050+ is “an opportunity to refine select plan strategies to integrate the lessons of the last three years.”
Unfortunately, much of the plan could have been written for the past 30 years, as it continues highway expansion policies that worsen congestion and contribute to a warming planet while continuing to under-invest in active and public transportation infrastructure, making the Bay Area less affordable for the average working family.
A recently released project list details $45 billion in highway projects over the next 30 years. While that represents about 9% of MTC’s total projected transportation investment, a smaller percentage than other metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and California’s state transportation budget put toward highway widening, much of the highway spending is front-loaded at the beginning of the plan, undercutting transit, walking, and biking investments while baking in congestion, pollution, and emissions for the next three decades.
Plan Bay Area 2050+ will likely fail to meet its emissions reduction target
As part of Senate Bill 375, MTC is required to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions from passenger vehicles by 19% by 2035. As our state contends with horrific wildfires during a wildfire season that extends year-round while also battling floods and drought, hitting this goal is more important than ever. However, according to the California Air Resources Board’s emission-tracking dashboard, we are moving in the wrong direction, with regional GHGs and vehicle miles traveled exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
Unfortunately, based on the transportation project list, we’re concerned that Plan Bay Area 2050+ is unlikely to achieve the required emissions reduction. Of the $45 billion dedicated to highways, over a third, about $16 billion, is earmarked for highway expansion, interchanges, and ramp widening, which all generate significant emissions and don’t even reduce congestion.
While the highway investment represents a fraction of the overall plan, it has an outsized climate impact. According to research from Georgetown Climate Center, you would need 10 times the investment in intercity rail to offset the emissions generated by each lane mile of highway expansion.
Making matters worse, Transform has already raised concerns about two of these highway expansion projects, SR 37 and I-680. We believe these projects will have much larger negative VMT and emissions impacts than MTC is projecting.
Front-loading climate destruction
MTC has put much of the highway widening in the first 10 years of the plan, baking in climate-killing emissions for the duration of the plan and ensuring maximum damage from the additional vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Nearly 80% of the highway expansion and 41 out of 88 projects are slated for the early years of the plan.
At the same time, some of the most effective greenhouse gas reduction strategies — all-lane tolling and pricing parking — won’t begin until 2035 at the earliest. We are already late in deploying these tools; we cannot and should not wait another 10 years before we take significant steps to reduce driving.
MTC — and all of California’s state and regional agencies — must stop acting like climate change is anything but an emergency. While Plan Bay Area 2050+ is an improvement on previous plans, it is simply not aggressive enough to compensate for decades of nonstop highway expansion. We can act quickly when needed; the actions already taken to respond to and streamline rebuilding after the Los Angeles fires demonstrate that. We need the same sense of urgency in addressing the climate emergency that we have in rebuilding after the catastrophes it causes or makes worse.
We need a better direction for the Bay Area’s transportation future
The projects included in Plan Bay Area 2050+ will set the funding decisions and priorities for the Bay Area’s transportation, housing, environment, and economy for the next 30 years, so getting this right is critical. Setting the wrong priorities or front-loading funding to projects that aren’t aligned with the priorities could lead to missed funding opportunities and missed climate goals.
Transform’s advocacy will inform the final blueprint, which the MTC will approve this spring. MTC will then send it to the California Air Resources Board, which must approve it and certify that it will meet sustainable communities strategy goals. We will continue advocating as the agencies involved finalize the plan over the next year, working to eliminate highway widening and expand funding for programs that support climate mitigation and the affordable, accessible, sustainable transportation options the Bay Area needs.
https://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/City-view-SF-Twin-Peaks-scaled.jpeg15361920Zack Deutsch-Grosshttps://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Company-Logo.pngZack Deutsch-Gross2025-01-21 17:11:472025-05-05 14:02:19MTC released its latest transportation plan. Here’s why we’re worried.
The Bay Area has two problems with the same solution: highway congestion and the climate crisis. Both require us to drive less and use other transportation modes more. However, incentivizing people to choose other modes can be a challenge.
In 2022, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) launched the Next Generation Bay Area Freeways Study with the goals of “analyzing the feasibility, costs, benefits, and public support for tolling certain Bay Area freeways as a strategy for delivering reliably high-speed travel and reducing greenhouse gas emissions caused by passenger vehicles.” In September and October 2024, MTC briefed and solicited feedback from Transform staff on the options it’s studying.
What is tolling?
Toll roads are not a new concept. In other parts of the country, you can find many highways where drivers must pay a fee on entering or exiting. This may be a flat fee or based on the distance traveled.
Studies have found that introducing tolls can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Tolls on highway travel have the added benefit of reducing congestion, making travel faster for those who still need to drive. In fact, tolling is a better long-term solution for congestion than adding highway lanes. New lanes, even HOV or tolled lanes, lead to more driving, more greenhouse gases, and — within five to 10 years — more congestion.
Getting around in a private vehicle imposes an external cost on everyone, whether they drive or not, by creating pollution and contributing to a warming climate. Tolls place more of the true costs of driving back on the driver. Tolling is an excellent strategy for the Bay Area to explore. However, as the study notes, the MTC doesn’t currently have the authority to impose tolls; it would need state legislation to do that.
Two tolling options
The MTC study includes six pathways that they studied but really focuses on two main pathways. The first is all-lane highway tolling, which means all lanes of all major highways during weekday rush hours from 6-10 a.m. and 3-7 p.m. would be tolled. The second is a mileage-based user fee that would charge drivers on all roads in the Bay Area based on the number of miles they drive during all hours.
When it comes to affordability, reliability, equity, and safety, each option has its pros and cons, according to modeling MTC staff uses to estimate the costs and benefits. For example, all-lane tolling would potentially:
Decrease overall vehicle miles traveled by 4%
Decrease greenhouse gas emissions by 2%
Decrease highway peak travel times by 14%
Increase transit usage by 0.3%.
The tolling option would also be more affordable for families as tolls for households below 200% of the federal poverty level would be capped at a maximum of $70 annually.
A mileage-based user fee would:
Decrease overall vehicle miles traveled by 2%
Decrease greenhouse gas emissions by 2%
Decrease highway peak travel times by 2%
Increase transit usage by 0.7%.
A mileage-based user fee would be less affordable for families than all-lane tolling, as households below 200% of the federal poverty level would pay as much as $300 annually before they reached the cap.
The all-lane tolling option could increase local street usage by 11%, according to MTC’s modeling, bringing more smog and pollution to our local roads. It could also cause local roads to need more frequent repairs, which would upset local politicians. However, it is important to note that tolling freeways doesn’t just divert all the traffic to local roads. It’s also more likely to reduce overall demand for driving, so even though MTC’s modeling shows an increase in local road usage, we might not see this big of an increase on local roads when it’s applied in real-world conditions. This option would decrease vehicle miles traveled on highways by much more than a mileage-based user fee, but the user fee does not increase local street usage at all. In fact, it decreases street usage by 2%.
Increasing transit usage is an important cornerstone of Transform’s philosophy, and the mileage-based user fee would increase transit usage more than highway tolling because it would generate more revenues than highway tolling. Therefore, more transit investments could be made by reinvesting revenues from the mileage-based user fee for transit for the same amount of GHG reduction. The user fee has a lower initial financial cost to implement because it comes with zero capital costs and brings in an annual net revenue of $2 billion. All-lane tolling would require $2.3 billion in capital costs to implement and would bring in an annual net revenue of $550 million.
Equitable tolling
For Transform, equity is an essential component in all policy changes. Tolling and increasing transit ridership are imperative in reaching our state climate goals and decreasing climate change globally. If structured equitably, these measures can also redress past transportation harms and avoid burdening already struggling families.
One of the best ways to mitigate harm to lower-income drivers is by capping the amount of money low-income families will pay in new tolls. MTC has proposed monthly caps on toll expenditures where households earning less than 200% of the federal poverty level — $62,400 for a family of four — only pay a maximum of $30 a month, while households at 200-300% of the federal poverty level would only pay a $60 maximum per month.
Additionally, highway tolls could result in a large increase in the use of local streets. While this model states that equity priority communities — Census tracts with a significant concentration of underserved populations, including people of color and households with low incomes — would not be disproportionately impacted, we remain cautious that the increase in vehicle miles traveled on local streets doesn’t disproportionately impact communities already burdened by pollution.
Equity includes ensuring that all regions of the Bay Area benefit from the money raised through tolling. Therefore, it is concerning that, in the highway tolling option being studied by MTC, the North Bay would only get 6% of the revenue from regional tolling for transit, local roads, and reparative infrastructure (investments in highway-adjacent low-income communities, such as urban greening and highway pedestrian crossings). We are all one region, so re-investment should not be exclusively tied to the percentage of county-generated revenue but allocated with the need and the importance of regional connectivity in mind.
All-lane tolling must also be equitable in how revenues are spent. MTC has proposed that 50% of the revenue from all-lane tolling will go to transit improvements, while 30% will go to roadway improvements and 15% to ‘reparative community investments.’ Since low-income and marginalized communities disproportionately use transit and have been harmed by past transportation decisions, the expenditures from all-lane tolling as proposed are progressive and would be an important step toward a more equitable transportation system.
Next steps for tolling
In a November 2024 policy advisory council meeting, MTC staff stated that while they are not saying one specific policy is better than another, they recommend that for Plan Bay 2050+, MTC should maintain the highway all-lane tolling option as a strategy in the plan and update it with the “latest strategy specifics to better balance tradeoffs between mobility, environmental, and equity outcomes.” In its upcoming implementation plan, MTC will identify actions to address some of the challenges mentioned in this blog.
While potential implementation of these tolling or user fee options would not start until 2035, MTC will be giving recommendations and an implementation roadmap during the fall and winter of 2024 and 2025, so this is a vital time for Transform to weigh in. We have been selected to be part of a diverse group of stakeholders participating in this process and have consistently reiterated the importance of equity in all tolling policy recommendations.
It’s critical to move forward on all-lane tolling, but Transform remains committed to ensuring an equitable solution moves forward.
https://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/daniel-lee-dzi83tDenUY-unsplash-scaled-e1721781696850.jpg19201280Abibat Rahman-Davieshttps://transformca.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Company-Logo.pngAbibat Rahman-Davies2024-12-04 14:59:522025-05-05 14:00:01MTC Tolling Study an Important Step Forward, But Equity Concerns Remain
