Tag Archive for: Regional Transportation Funding Measure

One Step Closer to Stable Funding for Bay Area Transit

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This post was originally published on July 30, 2025, and updated on August 13, 2025 to include the addition of Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties to the regional measure.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has found that the Bay Area needs to double transit ridership in order to meet our region’s climate goals. Yet we could move in the opposite direction if we don’t develop a stable, ongoing source of funding. Some operators could be forced to drastically curtail service, gridlocking our transportation systems. 

So, it’s good news that the Bay Area Transit Funding Bill, SB 63, has cleared all the policy committees in the legislature. The legislation gives Bay Area counties the authority to put a transit funding measure on the November 2026 ballot. Voters must approve the revenue mechanism and expenditure plan before it can take effect.

The Bay Area Transit Funding Bill has three more hurdles to clear: the Assembly Appropriations Committee, a vote of the full Assembly, and getting the governor’s signature. As the measure continues to make its way through the legislative process, Transform, and our allies are advocating for a better funding source and improvements that support riders throughout the region, and we see some positive signs. Based on the newly released expenditure plan, here’s where SB 63 and the Bay Area’s transit future stand with the legislature on recess.

Positive developments for region-wide transit

Moving legislation through can be a messy process, with changing provisions and shifting support. We’re seeing these positive developments in SB 63:

  • As formulated, it would generate around $1 billion annually for transit, enough to avert massive service cuts while not entirely filling the funding gap.
  • It includes about $46 million annually for transit transformation. This could provide discounted transfers and fares, making transit more affordable and encouraging more people to ride. And it would fund wayfinding and accessibility improvements that advocates have asked for, creating a more integrated transit system throughout the Bay Area.
  • Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties opted into the measure, despite not being initially included in the legislation. A five-county measure is a major win for regional connectivity and collaboration, particularly for rail operators BART and Caltrain, which serve both of these counties.

No money for highways

Earlier versions of the regional measure allowed as much as 30% of the measure to be available for highway spending, enough to outweigh any climate benefits generated by additional public transit investments. However, in a big win for Transform and the climate, not only will the measure be climate-positive, but all of the money will be spent on public transit, which will get people out of their cars and onto the bus or train, reducing congestion and greenhouse gas emissions.

What we’re still fighting for

Stable transit funding requires a new tax. From the beginning, Transform has advocated for a progressive revenue mechanism that would generate more funding and require wealthy businesses to pay their fair share. However, SB 63 calls for a sales tax, which will fall most heavily on those least able to afford it. 

The possibility of a citizen initiative

SB 63 contains language to allow a regional funding measure to be placed on the ballot via citizen initiative. A citizen-led initiative has a significant upside: it only needs 50% plus one vote to pass. A measure placed on the ballot by MTC or another elected body requires over two-thirds of voter support.

Getting a citizen initiative on the ballot isn’t easy. Bay Area Forward — a collaboration of transit unions and Voices for Public Transportation Coalition — and our allies would need to collect tens of thousands of signatures, which is an expensive and time-consuming process. However, if we succeeded, this could provide a template for future funding measures, such as a proposed affordable housing measure.

Bay Area transit must keep moving forward 

Bay Area legislators, MTC, and advocates like Transform have been working for several years to save local transit from the fiscal cliff. We’ve secured stopgap funding and an emergency loan from the state while investing significantly in safety, cleanliness, and innovative fare programs like the Clipper BayPass, which has grown ridership by 30%. 

These wins will be lost if we don’t pass a regional measure in 2026. Even if SB 63 doesn’t contain everything Transform could hope for by the time it reaches the governor’s office, we’ll still work hard to see that it passes in 2026. The future of the transit systems that the Bay Area relies on, as well as our economic vitality, access to opportunity, and climate goals, depend on it. 

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New Economic Study Finds Gross Receipts Tax on Top 2% of Big Businesses Will Prevent Collapse of Bay Area Public Transit Agencies

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Wednesday, July 2, 2025

CONTACT: 
Ryan Williams
(510) 590-2782‬
[email protected]

Analysis shows a gross receipts tax will generate nearly 1 1/2 times more funds annually than a regressive sales tax, which polls poorly

SACRAMENTO, CA – Today, Bay Area Forward released a new economic analysis that shows Bay Area public transit can be fully funded by a gross receipts tax on only the top 2% of Bay Area businesses.

Local transit agencies are facing at least $800 million in an annual operating deficit beginning next year that could lead to massive service cuts, widespread congestion and delays, and layoffs of highly-skilled transit workers.

The economic analysis, conducted by Blue Sky Consulting Group, estimates only 18,180 Bay Area establishments in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, and San Francisco counties – or 2.4% of local businesses – will pay into the gross receipts tax. Together, these 18,000 businesses generate $591 billion in gross receipts with the average qualifying business generating about $32.5 million. Under the proposed average tax rate of 0.136%, a business with $32.5 million in gross receipts would pay just $37,290.

Because the tax includes an exception for small businesses with under $5 million in gross receipts, about 98% of Bay Area businesses will pay nothing.

“The vast majority of businesses will not be affected by this gross receipts tax due to the five million dollar exemption,” said Ryan Williams, Board Member of Bay Area Forward. “The Trump-era corporate tax cuts that these top two percent of businesses received far outweigh the less than one percent tax they will pay to save Bay Area public transit and our local economy.”

Senate Bill 63 currently would allow a sales tax measure to be placed on the 2026 ballot to support transit agencies in the Bay Area. But a study by MTC, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, shows that a sales tax will raise only $560 million annually, leaving a gaping hole in Bay Area transit agency budgets.

Bay Area Forward is working with the Legislature to amend SB 63 to replace the regressive sales tax with a gross receipts tax on big businesses. This would shift the financial burden from working people and small businesses onto big corporations to raise $800 million per year in stable, long-term funding for Bay Area transit operations.

“With a sales tax, many small businesses will see their tax liability increase, along with local residents already paying some of the highest sales tax rates in the country,” said Laurel Paget-Seekins, Senior Policy Advocate at Public Advocates. “According to this analysis, a gross receipts tax is the most effective revenue source to solve the funding crisis for Bay Area transit without asking working families, seniors, students, and small businesses to pay more.”

The economic analysis can be viewed here.

Last week, at a Bay Area Forward press conference, Senator Scott Wiener announced a budget deal that preserved $750 million in the budget for vital “bridge funding” for Bay Area public transit until a ballot measure can be passed in 2026. While the new funding provides much-needed relief for transit agencies, it must be repaid to the State – underscoring the importance of passing a 2026 regional ballot measure that fully addresses ongoing budget gaps.

Multiple polls indicate weak support for a sales tax with the cost of living a top concern. But a recent Bay Area Forward poll on a regional transit measure showed that a gross receipts tax garnered more than 60% support among likely 2026 voters

For more information on Bay Area Forward, please visit BayAreaForward.com.

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Bay Area Forward is dedicated to strengthening and modernizing our public transportation system in the Bay Area and making it more equitable, affordable, safe, and reliable so that Bay Area residents, businesses, the environment, and the economy can thrive.

The founding member organizations of Bay Area Forward include AFSCME Council 57, AFSCME Local 3993, AFSCME Local 3916, Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1555, Amalgamated Transit Union Local 192, Service Employees International Union 1021, SMART – Transportation Division, Transport Workers Union Local 250A, United Auto Workers (UAW) Region 6, and dozens of community groups that are part of the Voices for Public Transportation coalition, including Transform.


New Polling Shows Path Forward for Regional Transportation Funding Measure

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A poll commissioned by Bay Area Forward, an alliance of labor unions and transportation advocates, found that Bay Area residents want to save public transit and favor a gross receipts tax on businesses to provide a secure funding source. Transform, which is a founding member of the alliance as part of the Voices for Public Transportation Coalition, has long advocated for a progressive funding mechanism such as a gross receipts tax, rather than a regressive sales tax. 

A strong majority of 61% supports the gross receipts tax. Before we can place a gross receipts tax measure on the ballot, however, we need state authority. Transform will be working hard to add an amendment to SB 63, the measure sponsored by Senators Arreguin and Wiener, to replace the sales tax with a gross receipts tax for Bay Area transit funding. 

Poll results

FM3 Memo Regional Transit Measure 2026 SurveyDownload

Coalition statement on polling

Bay Area Forward, a New Transit Alliance, Launches to Advocate Big Business Pay Their Fair Share to Fund Transportation

Community and labor organizations release new polling showing strong voter support for a business tax as the funding mechanism for a 2026 regional transit ballot measure.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

CONTACT: Ryan Williams, (510) 590-2782‬, [email protected]

OAKLAND, CA – Bay Area Forward, a new transit alliance consisting of labor unions, transit advocates, and climate, bike and pedestrian groups, announces its formation to strengthen and modernize Bay Area public transportation and urges the State Legislature to use a business gross receipts tax as the funding mechanism for the measure following poll results that show strong voter support.

“BART, SF Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit are careening toward a fiscal cliff that would upend our economy and the lives of Bay Area residents,” said Richard Marcantonio of Public Advocates and the Voices for Public Transportation coalition, and board member of Bay Area Forward. “Voters want to save transit, but utilizing a sales tax won’t raise enough to solve the crisis.”

A recent poll, conducted by FM3 Research on a regional transit measure, asked likely November 2026 voters in Alameda County, Contra Costa County, San Francisco, and San Mateo County whether big business should pay their fair share to support public transit.

The results are clear: for the first time in five years of polling, a revenue source supporting regional transit needs broke 60% support with a business gross receipts tax initially polling at 61%.

After both positive and negative messaging, the business gross receipts tax ended with +21% net support (57-36%) while the sales tax was +10% (55-45%). Importantly, in places where polls show the sales tax option is failing, such as San Mateo County (47-53%), the business gross receipts tax polled at a whopping +27% net support (60-33%).

Business gross receipts is not a source of revenue normally available to most counties for transit needs, except with state authorization. Because SB 63, authored by Senators Jesse Arreguín and Scott Wiener, is necessary to authorize the regional measure, the Legislature can choose a county level business gross receipts tax to fund the transit measure.

“We urge the Legislature to amend the funding mechanism in SB 63 to a gross receipts tax instead of a sales tax,” said Jesse Hunt, President of ATU Local 1555 and board member of Bay Area Forward. “Utilizing this source is a win-win approach providing funding for regional transit agencies while protecting sales tax revenue for other important local needs.”

The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic shifts in work patterns and the Trump Administration’s attacks on transit have created a perfect storm threatening the very foundation of the public transportation network in the Bay Area. The Metropolitan Transportation Commission projects that without new revenue sources, Bay Area transit agencies could face annual deficits exceeding $915 million annually starting as early as 2026, leading to massive service cuts, the elimination of transit as a viable transportation option for Bay Area residents, and widespread congestion and delays.

Bay Area Forward is dedicated to strengthening and modernizing our public transportation system in the Bay Area and making it more equitable, affordable, safe, and reliable so that Bay Area residents, businesses, environment, and the economy can thrive.

The founding member organizations of Bay Area Forward include AFSCME Council 57, AFSCME Local 3993, AFSCME Local 3916, Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1555, Amalgamated Transit Union Local 192, Service Employees International Union 1021, SMART – Transportation Division, Transport Workers Union Local 250A, United Auto Workers (UAW) Region 6, and dozens of community groups that are part of the Voices for Public Transportation coalition.

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Who’s Riding Transit Today?

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The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) conducted a quick-turnaround survey in 2024 to give a snapshot of today’s Bay Area transit riders. MTC collected data from 16,500 passengers to create the report. Here’s what it found.

Rider demographics

Transit riders are more likely to be Black or Latine than the Bay Area as a whole and less likely to be White or Asian than before the pandemic. They are four times as likely to live in poverty as the average Bay Area resident and tend to be lower income.

About 8% of transit riders surveyed have a disability that impacts their ability to get around. And 65% don’t have access to a private vehicle they could use if they weren’t able to ride transit. 

These figures show how essential public transit is. Many riders would be stranded and have difficulty affording a car or rideshare rides if they couldn’t take a train or bus to get where they need to go. Public transit is also a lifeline for people who can’t drive due to a disability. And the data shows the critical role transit plays in lifting people out of poverty by providing affordable mobility to educational and employment opportunities.

Where people are going

The share of people taking transit to work is down from pre-pandemic numbers. Currently, around 50% of riders are commuting to a job; before 2020, that figure was 60%.

Still, almost 60% take transit at least five days a week. And that number isn’t likely to go down; 91% in the survey expected to take transit the same amount or more next year. Transform is working on a regional transit measure to ensure Bay Area operators have the funding they need to keep these vital services in place.

Room for improvement

While a majority of transit riders (58%) feel safe or very safe on transit, survey respondents have a vision for a better transit system. The number one improvement riders would like to see is increased frequency. When trains and buses come more often, transit becomes a more reliable mobility option, which then increases ridership in a virtuous circle. More frequent transit also increases safety, because riders aren’t waiting at a bus stop or on a train platform for as long. Transform’s Ride Fearlessly report highlighted frequency, as well as cleanliness, another requested improvement. 

Riders would also like to see lower fares and more reliable service. Reliability is another key to improving safety, as riders can count on a bus or train arriving on time and not being stranded for an uncomfortably long time waiting for a bus or train that doesn’t arrive. 

Transform is currently working on a white paper to address transit affordability. Our goal is not only to preserve our current transit systems but to transform them into the dependable, efficient, and accessible public transportation Bay Area residents want and need.

Read the survey report.

4bi_25-0247_Summary Sheet_Transit_Passenger_Snapshot_SurveyDownload

Muni Survey Exposes Dire Need to Address Transit Safety

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San Francisco’s Municipal Transit Agency recently released preliminary findings from its transit safety survey. A bill Transform helped pass in 2023, SB 434 (Min), requires all California transit agencies to conduct these surveys. San Francisco’s initial results show that less than half of respondents feel safe on Muni most of the time. It also highlights the disproportionate impacts of harassment and assault among transit riders. Women, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and riders with disabilities felt less safe than the average rider, and non-gender-conforming people in particular experienced significantly more threats and harassment. 

If you haven’t taken the survey yet, Muni is collecting rider feedback through February 28. The survey is available in Cantonese and Spanish as well as English.

Initial Muni survey results highlight areas for improvement

Muni riders reported experiencing or witnessing harassment most often on trains or buses, less often at bus stops, and even less often on train platforms. The most common time and place to witness something that made a rider feel unsafe was during the day on a vehicle. Still, some riders reported that they didn’t ride alone at night or avoided Muni altogether after dark.

The most common behavior was verbal harassment or hostile gestures; 62% of riders experienced this, and 74% had witnessed it directed at someone else. Half of the survey respondents had seen a physical assault while on transit, and 36% had experienced it themselves. 

People with disabilities, women, Latino riders, and Spanish speakers were more likely to report seeing or experiencing harassment. API and Chinese speakers were most likely to report harassment based on race or language.

2024.12.30 SEI Safety Survey Initial ReportDownload

Improving safety on public transit 

Improving safety is crucial to ensuring everyone has access to schools, jobs, and opportunities, and also to the Bay Area’s economy. Local businesses suffer when riders stay home because they don’t have safe transportation options. For many riders, transit is the only travel option that meets their needs, and when that is taken away due to safety concerns, it dramatically hurts people’s quality of life.  

Transform’s 2023 report, Ride Fearlessly, outlined a series of steps transit agencies can take to make riders feel safer without increased policing. Possible actions include increased frequency so riders aren’t left for long waiting for the next bus or train, public awareness campaigns, and making mental health interventions and support available, to name a few. 

The reality is that we need significantly more funding to implement these safety programs along with increasing the transit frequency and reliability that will bring additional riders back to transit. Transform has joined a coalition that’s asking San Francisco’s elected leaders to close Muni’s funding gap to ensure this system, which is vital to the well-being of the city, remains safe and reliable.

Transform Joins Fight to Save SF Muni 

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The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (SFMTA), which runs the city’s essential Muni transit service, faces a budget deficit of up to $322 million by 2026, threatening the integrity of the system. As part of our commitment to preserving and improving public transit, Transform joined the Muni Now, Muni Forever campaign as part of the Transit Justice Coalition — a group of transit riders, disability advocates, climate advocates, members of labor unions, and community groups — to meet with members of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors on January 16. We were part of a lobby day to speak with the city’s elected leaders about the need to find money to fully fund Muni.

Funding shortfalls caused by external factors, not ridership loss

The funding shortfall is a result of several factors, including a decline in the amount of parking revenue Muni receives from the city’s general fund, inflation, and a reduction in federal aid. Only a small portion of SFMTA’s deficit is due to pandemic ridership loss, as Muni only gets a small portion of its revenue from fares. Additionally, Muni ridership has continued to recover, reaching 78% of pre-pandemic levels. Weekend ridership has reached 92% of pre-pandemic levels, and some lines have even surpassed their pre-pandemic ridership. 

Muni and other public transit providers serving the city are critical not only to San Francisco but all of the Bay Area. In September, there were an average of 521,000 weekday trips on Muni every day. In fact, Muni carries the most riders of all the Bay Area transit agencies, and many regular riders are not San Francisco residents. 

SFMTA’s $322 million budget deficit is already leading to service cuts and reductions. On February 1, Muni reduced service on the 1X California Express, 38 Geary, 24 Divisadero, and 43 Masonic buses and on the K Ingleside and M Ocean View light-rail Metro service. 

These cuts could be followed by a further 3% service cut this summer, and if additional funding still isn’t found, service cuts could balloon up to 30%. The SFMTA Board of Directors is pushing back on proposed Muni service cuts, asking the agency to dip into its reserves and look elsewhere for cost savings to balance its budget. The Transit Justice Coalition will continue to mobilize to gain more funding and prevent these service cuts.

Bearing witness to the crucial role of transit in San Francisco

In meetings with members of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, advocates impressed upon them that public transit should be a top priority in San Francisco. We asked that they explore funding options that would equitably balance the budget deficit without resorting to service cuts. 

Constituents spoke with their district supervisors to share how important transit was in their everyday lives. San Franciscans rely on Muni to get to doctor appointments, enjoy and patronize businesses in San Francisco, and much more. Advocates related how cuts to transit would devastate their quality of life and the economic prosperity of San Francisco. 

Many of the supervisors were supportive of our cause but seemed to be missing the sense of urgency around the issue and the importance of their role in shoring up SFMTA’s finances. The agency can only do so much to plug its deficit. As stewards of the city budget, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors has a lot of power in putting forth a balanced budget that prioritizes transit. Transform is standing with advocates demanding the city do more to solve this critical issue now.

MTC Indecision on Regional Transit Funding Measure Leaves Riders in the Lurch

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For immediate release

Contact: Abibat Rahman-Davies, [email protected], 510-740-9303

SAN FRANCISCO –  After months of deliberation, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) failed to identify a clear path forward for a much-needed regional transportation measure.  

“We can’t let the unthinkable happen and let transit services collapse. It will be a domino effect, stripping the Bay Area of the public transit that’s the lifeblood of our region,” said Transform Transportation Policy Director Zack Deutsch-Gross. “Everyone suffers when transit service goes away. But low-income and BIPOC people, who often have the fewest transportation choices, will bear the brunt of diminished or absent public transit, with reduced access to jobs, education, and necessary services.” 

The Bay Area’s transit agencies face a fiscal crisis, with massive service cuts expected if the region doesn’t secure an additional revenue source by 2027. BART could be forced to reduce train frequencies to once an hour during off-peak times, while Muni would suspend up to 20 routes, and AC Transit would have to cut their entire service by up to 30%.

Time is running out to develop a unifying vision for a regional transportation revenue measure that can be approved by the legislature in 2025 and go on the ballot in 2026. With today’s vote to advance two different funding concepts — both lacking full-throated support from the Commission and select committee — Bay Area residents are entering the 2025 legislative cycle without a clear path forward to keep their buses and trains running.

One of the scenarios (1a) would not even fully address the fiscal cliff for Muni or AC Transit, despite the fact that these two agencies carry approximately 75% of the transit ridership in the Bay Area. 

Both scenarios are funded through a regressive sales tax. A sales tax measure would further burden low-income residents, especially in Alameda County, which already has the highest sales tax in the Bay Area. 

“Affordability is a top concern for voters, but a half-cent sales tax would burden those with the least ability to pay without fully addressing the fiscal cliff,” said Transform Transportation Policy Advocate Abibat Rahman-Davies. “It’s incredibly disheartening to see civic leaders like the Bay Area Council threaten to kill any measure that is not a sales tax.”

The Bay Area cannot give up on regional transit. If any of our transit systems is forced into drastic service cuts or ceases operation, we will lose a vital link in a transit chain, stranding residents from throughout the region. As a member of Voices for Public Transportation, Transform will continue to work with MTC, Bay Area transit operators, and the state legislature to advance authorizing legislation to support a robust, vibrant, connected transit future for our whole region. 

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Transform Responds to MTC Select Committee Inaction on Regional Transit Funding

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For immediate release

Contact: Abibat Rahman-Davies, [email protected]

SAN FRANCISCO – The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) select committee tasked with developing a proposal for a funding mechanism for public transit has failed to come to a consensus. Now, the full commission will take up the task — and it must not fail.

“We can’t let the unthinkable happen and let transit agencies fail. It will be a domino effect, stripping the Bay Area of the public transit that’s the lifeblood of our region. Everyone suffers when transit service fails. But low-income and BIPOC people, who often have the fewest transportation choices, will bear the brunt of diminished or absent public transit, with reduced access to jobs, education, and necessary services,” says Transform Transportation Policy Advocate Abibat Rahman-Davies. “It’s time for the commissioners to think big and take their responsibility to provide a stable funding source for the whole region seriously.”

The Bay Area’s 27 transit agencies face a fiscal crisis. An additional funding allocation from the legislature in 2023 will run out soon, and Bay Area legislators and MTC have struggled to find a solution acceptable to all stakeholders that could win enough support at the ballot box. Most recently, MTC created a select committee to craft a measure with broad support.

We recognize this is a daunting task. Counties and cities have different priorities. Business interests and labor unions want specific provisions. But the members of the select committee, rather than providing certainty amidst the dissent, have not shown the leadership we need in this moment. Members have been focused on parochial interests and swayed by special interests. Today, as the MTC Special Select Committee mandate ended, they failed to reach a true consensus.

The Bay Area cannot give up on regional transit. As a member of Voices for Public Transportation, we have been working for years toward a vision for a more robust, vibrant, connected transit future for our whole region. If any of our transit systems is forced into drastic service cuts or ceases operation, we will lose a vital link in a transit chain, stranding residents from throughout the region.

We are not giving up. We call on MTC to quickly develop a funding proposal where no one is left behind, meaning that it is regional, fully funds the transit operator gap, and contains projects that reduce emissions. Any projects that increase vehicle miles traveled (VMT)  should be strictly mitigated. 

Reliable transit protects our climate from an emissions catastrophe and our roadways from endless gridlock. It’s time for MTC to step up, make hard decisions, and show it’s up to the challenge of leading the way for Bay Area transportation. 

The Train Has Gone Off the Tracks: People Are Speaking Up but MTC Is not Listening

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After SB 1031, a bill to fund Bay Area transit, was withdrawn, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) set up a special select committee to craft a regional transit measure that could gain wide support. The commission meets monthly through October to set up a framework for a new funding bill to be sent to the legislature at the start of the 2025 session. 

On September 23, 2024, MTC held a meeting of the Transportation Revenue Measure Select Committee that should have produced a near-final version of the measure for ratification in October. Unfortunately, the meeting ended without consensus. While all members agreed that transit desperately needs to be funded, how exactly it should be funded has been up for debate. We understand the challenge of bringing together many diverse stakeholders with sometimes opposing interests, but it’s a challenge MTC must meet.

Contentious MTC meeting

At the September select committee meeting, members were asked to vote on two different scenarios that have been continually refined at each of the previous meetings. The Core scenario — which includes Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, and San Mateo Counties — has an opt-in for the other counties and is funded through a sales tax. The Hybrid Scenario (formerly the Go Big Scenario) includes all nine counties and aims to sustain current service levels and close operator-reported deficits with funding from a ½ cent sales tax combined with a payroll tax. 

Disagreements came to a head as select committee members were asked to express their support for the scenarios through a gradient of agreement: 1 — strongly agree, 2 — have some reservations but agree, 3 — neutral but strong reservations, 4 — will go along but have strong reservations, or  5 — strongly disagree. The tallied vote showed virtually a tie between the two scenarios, with both scenarios around 3.8. This score reflects weak support, and many commissioners advocated for a third option that was not brought up for a vote: the Hunger Games scenario. That option would largely remove MTC from the picture, leaving individual counties and transit agencies to run their own, sometimes competing, funding measures. This level of disagreement further illustrates the deadlock on the committee on how to save our failing transit systems.

Turning a deaf ear to the public — and MTC’s charter

Which scenario the MTC special select committee will ultimately choose to save our transit systems is unclear, but what is clear is that many commissioners are out of step with what the community is demanding. The committee voted on the scenarios before public comments were even made, so their votes weren’t influenced by public input. In fact, during public comments, many commissioners left the room. 

In explaining his vote, one commissioner, who voted “strongly disagree” for both scenarios, stated that while he wants to find a solution, he is not optimistic, and he doesn’t believe MTC is even the right place to create a solution to fund our transit system. However, according to California law, the role of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission is “to provide comprehensive regional transportation planning for the region comprised of the City and County of San Francisco and the Counties of Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma.”(emphasis added). It’s precisely MTC’s primary role to solve this issue, so if MTC is not the right arena for this, then who is?

Regressive funding sources

Advocacy groups and many members of the public have called for a solution that doesn’t add to the financial burden that disenfranchised groups face. Yet many MTC commissioners have continued to push for scenarios funded either completely or mostly by regressive taxes such as a sales tax. 

Progressive revenue sources like parcel and payroll taxes have strong community support. The committee removed the parcel tax because of concerns about overusing it, since it is a potential funding source for the housing bond. 

The business community spoke up fervently against a negligible 0.18% payroll tax, claiming that it sent a bad message to Bay Area businesses. The commission seemed very concerned about the business community’s opposition to a payroll tax, and many commissioners spoke up in agreement with the business community’s disapproval of the payroll tax. However, many members of the public mentioned during public comment that they liked a payroll tax because they felt that businesses should pay their fair share toward the transit services they rely on.

TransForm Supports Measure B, Alameda County’s Transportation Measure

Bay Area transit is regional — we need a regional solution

Keeping our transit systems fully funded and operating reliably is a regional problem that needs a regional solution. Unfortunately, during the select committee process and especially in the September meeting, many commissioners have been focused on their county’s benefit and fairness for their county, failing to see the big picture. 

Many commissioners also continued to push for the Hunger Games scenario. However, people don’t use transit systems by county; they ride regionally. Someone might get on a bus in one county, connect to BART in another county, and then take MUNI or Caltrain at the other end. A failure of any of our transit systems would be catastrophic for the whole region, not just one county, so we need to solve this problem together.  

In addition, multiple measures introduce multiple points of failure. We already fund big capital projects regionally, so we should be able to fund transit operations regionally.

Speak up for public transit

MTC’s October special select committee meeting will decide on the final solution to submit to the legislature. We need you to call in and tell MTC commissioners that they need to get the train back on the tracks. Ask them to listen to the voices of the people who will vote for the measure and of transit riders.

No one wants Bay Area transit systems to fail or be forced into drastic service cuts. The MTC must put forth a regional scenario that covers the deficit, is long-term, and is funded by mostly progressive revenue sources. Transform and our allies at Voices for Public Transit are working hard to support this scenario. We are deeply grateful to everyone who has come to meetings and spoken out. While the Hybrid (formerly Go Big) scenario is not the perfect option, it is a regional solution that would save transit operations, and you are the reason it is still being considered. Please come out one more time on October 21. Help us win approval for a regional solution.

Regional Transportation Funding Meeting Exposes Conflicting Views, Hope 

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On August 26, 2024, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) met to discuss the two frameworks for a transportation funding bill. Thankfully, despite a big push for business interests and few commissioners, the scenario that Transform supports, the Go Big Scenario, also known as Scenario 2, is still in play. The commission has decided to go forward and revise Scenarios 1 and 2, and look into the feasibility of Scenario 3, and bring these revised scenarios to the next MTC select committee meeting on September 23. 

What’s at stake

Ridership for all of the Bay Area’s transit systems is still well below pre-pandemic levels, reducing fare revenue that many providers rely on. Yet providers must maintain routes and schedules to make public transit a viable option and build ridership back up, rather than losing more passengers due to lack of service. MTC is developing language for authorizing legislation for a funding measure that will be on the ballot in 2026. The challenge is to find a solution that stakeholders can agree on.

The options currently under consideration are:

  • Scenario 1: Core Counties. San Francisco, Contra Costa, Alameda, and San Mateo Counties would develop a regional funding mechanism just covering their transit systems. Other counties could opt in. The funding mechanism would be a half-cent sales tax.
  • Scenario 2: Go Big. This option would cover all nine Bay Area counties and use a progressive funding mechanism of a parcel or payroll tax. 
  • Scenario 3: Go It Alone. There would be no regional measure, but MTC would support counties that wanted to run their own revenue measures.

Transform supports the Go Big option because it offers the best chance for an integrated and improved transit ecosystem throughout the Bay Area. Residents rely on more than their local transit systems to move from city to city throughout the region, so a region-wide approach will keep transit consistent and prevent a patchwork of different service levels. Plus, the progressive funding options are the most equitable and sustainable.

Voices in support of transformational transit funding

In the meeting, commissioners reaffirmed their commitment to funding transit. After MTC staff presented the scenarios, several MTC commissioners spoke up in support of the Go Big Scenario. 

Commissioner Noak, who represents Contra Costa County, stated that she supported The Go Big Scenario but had concerns about the funding amounts being reduced after eight years. Commissioner Canepa, who represents San Mateo County, also spoke favorably of Scenario 2, stating that a more regional approach will ensure that everyone pays their fair share into regional systems such as Caltrain. 

Several members of the select committee objected to asking voters to raise their taxes for service cuts, and Scenario 1 would do just that. Many commissioners also pointed out that Scenario 3 would force certain counties to vote on multiple transit measures. San Francisco, for example, would have to vote on three different transit agency funding measures for Caltrain, Muni, and BART. 

Despite the issues with Scenario 1, some members of the select committee spoke up in its favor and against Scenario 2. The primary concerns about Scenario 2 were that it was funded through a parcel or a payroll tax and that currently, a truly regional measure that included all nine counties lacked political feasibility.  

Advocates speak out

Many advocates with Transform and the Voices for Public Transportation Coalition made public comments at the meeting in support of Scenario 2. They coalesced around several demands addressed by Scenario 2:

  • This measure needs to be regional, so it must include all nine counties. 
  • The main goal of this measure is to fund transit, and Bay Area transit riders and voters have said they support investing in a transit system with fast, frequent, reliable, coordinated, accessible, and affordable service. 
  • MTC’s polling showed that voters want transit improvements even more than they want to prevent cuts. Only Scenario 2, the 9-county, $1.5 billion option, achieves this need. 
  • We must prioritize safe and complete streets in the measure and limit roadway expenditures to a state of good repair with no highway expansions. 
  • It should be funded through progressive revenue sources such as a payroll tax or parcel tax. 
  • Scenario 2 has a wide breadth of support from riders, community organizations, and labor unions. 

Many advocates hit home the point that we can’t run a campaign asking voters to increase their taxes and then start implementing transit cuts. Not only will voters not vote for this, but it will make it difficult to ask them to fund transit in the future.

On September 23, 2024, MTC staff will present revised versions of Scenarios 1 and 2 based on suggestions made by commissioners at the August meeting. They will also present on the feasibility of Scenario 3. At the September meeting, the commission hopes to narrow in on one scenario, with a final vote being at the October special select committee meeting. 

While it is good news that the Go Big Scenario is still on the table, advocates, riders, labor, and community groups will have to continue to speak up and take action if we want to ensure that the select committee narrows its focus and selects the Go Big Scenario as the best option to move forward in the upcoming legislative session. 

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